The Rare Earth Illusion

Chasing the Wrong Problem

When it comes to speaking with generalist investors about the mining industry, nothing reveals the level of understanding more than the overwhelming focus on minerals that are, in reality, very small markets.

Rare earths are indeed critical metals, but they remain extremely small relative to the level of institutional interest we are seeing today.

Look across the industry. Billions of dollars have been deployed, yet no one is making any money. Some of these companies are now worth nearly $10B. It’s insane.

This feels very similar to the misallocation of capital we saw in the so-called green agenda, where ESG-focused companies attracted billions in institutional capital and have since faded from the core investment discussion.

Let me be clear:

We do not need more capital chasing new rare earth deposits. We already have enough players pursuing supply in these markets. The real bottleneck is not discovery — it is processing capacity.

A significant portion of the “green energy” narrative has pushed capital into REE exploration simply because the entry cost is low. But statistically, only 1 in 1,000 earlier stage projects becomes a producing mine.