Macro Update

Tavi Costa

Jul 14, 2026

∙ Paid

Remember when Scott Bessent said to judge him by the 10-year Treasury?

US 10-year real yields just reached their highest level in more than 2 years.

Markets are the ultimate judge of fiscal discipline.

Reminder:

The US simply cannot afford both a prolonged war and higher interest rates.

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In this report, I want to spend more time discussing the Treasury market, walk through a collection of macro charts that I believe are critical to understanding today’s environment, and finish with a few updates on my portfolio positioning.

The image depicts a chart showing the current U.S. 10-year real interest rate, with the rate peaking at 2.4000% and including a breakdown of nominal interest rates and breakeven rates for various years.

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Tavi Costa

Macro Update

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