Yes, the last time we were here turned out to be a great buying opportunity…. but I try not to get too fixated on technical levels alone.

What stands out to me is how dramatically sentiment has shifted.

Just a few months ago, gold was one of the market’s favorite trades.

Today, it feels almost completely forgotten.

Not to steal from Buffett, but I’m starting to get greedy while others are becoming fearful.

Just a quick note to highlight a few pieces that I think are particularly relevant at today’s discounted prices:

· Why copper may be leading gold: Full Report

· The case for zinc: Full Report

· My latest macro presentation: Video

And as always, the meme below is a good reminder of where things stood not too long ago.

Independent thinking is essential in this business. What always amazes me is how often prices get cheaper and confidence disappears. Personally, I tend to view it the other way around.

One last thing...

If you’re bored tonight and having trouble falling asleep, give this a try instead of melatonin: Full Interview

Have a great day.

Best,

Tavi

Important Disclosures

This commentary has been prepared by Tavi Costa for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, nor does it constitute investment advice or a recommendation to participate in any trading strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, Tavi Costa makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

Any opinions or estimates expressed reflect personal views as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consider this material as only one input in their decision-making process and should obtain independent financial, legal, and tax advice before making any investment decisions.

Investing in financial instruments involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fluctuate and may be affected by changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, credit conditions, and the price or volatility of underlying assets. Certain investments may be speculative and are not suitable for all investors.

Tavi Costa may, from time to time, have long or short positions in securities or other financial instruments mentioned and may transact in such instruments without

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Yes, the last time we were here turned out to be a great buying opportunity…. but I try not to get too fixated on technical levels alone.

What stands out to me is how dramatically sentiment has shifted.

Just a few months ago, gold was one of the market’s favorite trades.

Today, it feels almost completely …

Read more

Yes, AI, industrial demand, and onshoring are part of the story.

But the real driver is a tightening supply-demand imbalance that the market is only beginning to price in.

That said:

Metals rarely stay disconnected for long.

This gap is setting the stage for gold to become the next catch-up trade, in my view.

In this report, I will explore this opportunity in greater detail, discuss how I am positioning for it, and highlight several important macro charts that support the overall thesis.

Read more

When structural demand collides with stagnant production.

You can’t just flip a switch and grow mine output overnight.

Discoveries are rarer, permitting is harder, grades are falling, and development timelines keep getting longer.

Contrary to what most believe, this is not a speculative bubble.

It is the market adjusting to a new reality of structurally higher resource prices.

Wake me up when production actually starts surging.

This report also highlights zinc, which I believe is emerging as one of the most compelling opportunities across the commodity complex. Let’s dive in.

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• Mining stocks

• LatAm markets

• The US dollar

• Interest rates

• Monetary policy

• Agriculture-related stocks

Hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

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It doesn’t take a mathematician to recognize what happens when a business is selling metal for $75/oz while production costs remain closer to $15–20/oz.

These are the strongest margins this industry has ever experienced.

Here is a macro and technical report covering several important charts and market developments that I believe are worth discussing.

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Do not underestimate the power of long-term decline in the dollar.

Ignore the near term moves in the counter direction, in the big picture the US dollar is at a critical juncture and US policymakers have no option but to devalue the currency, in my view.

The implications out of this move will be profound.

In Gold We Trust is without a doubt one of the most must-reads we have in the mining industry.

It’s a great compilation of charts and ideas and great macro quotes from some of the smartest macro minds out there.

I wanted to do a dedicated post for them with some of my favorite charts from this report.

Two things: here is my own list of favorite charts from their report and my commentaries.

Also, here is the link for the full report for your consumption. Enjoy.

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And again, let’s stop solely blaming the war for this:

Inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon.

You do not solve an inflation problem with a 25bps rate cut — especially when the system can barely afford current interest rate levels as it is.

Here is a broader perspective on the current macro regime we are experiencing, along with several important long-term macro charts that I believe are worth keeping in mind.

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This chart reminds me of a great quote from Paul Tudor Jones:

“The key to being successful is to be able to time the breakout, not just wait for it.”

Here’s a list of technical charts that I believe are at a critical juncture. Hope you enjoy.

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Unpopular view:

The Fed is probably closer to easing than tightening with the way the Treasury market has been behaving recently.

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Nope…. this is not a chart of US yields surging... It’s corn prices starting to break out.

To be clear, this report is simply a curated collection of macro charts and market trends I found interesting over the last few days.

Hope you enjoy.

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Much of the market remains asleep and still analyzes mining through an outdated framework from decades ago.

To be clear:

Miners today are producing profit margins nearly double those of tech companies.

At current metal prices, this environment is absolute nirvana for well-run mining businesses.

Let me walk you through where I believe the industry is headed from here, some exploration companies I continue to find particularly compelling, and my broader thoughts on the recent pullback across the sector.

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We are living through a global monetary reordering.

Do not let volatility discourage you. We cannot control it.

What we can control is how thoughtfully we respond when opportunities present themselves.

As long-term investors, the goal is not to be reactive. It is to stay grounded, reassess the broader picture, and act with discipline when the setup becomes attractive.

Below is a sequence of long-term charts that may help put today’s move in context and offer a clearer framework for thinking through capital allocation.

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Junior miners turned positive and the senior producers quickly followed.

It’s astonishing to see investors continue selling this industry after strong inflation data, when logically the response should be the exact opposite.

The Fed cannot repeat the 1970s playbook today without blowing up the most leveraged financial system in history.

Welcome to an unhinged inflationary era.

Game on.

I decided to make a few moves today. Let me walk you through my thinking.

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Mining stocks moving higher.

Agricultural commodities breaking out.

Oil approaching $100.

Natural gas likely bottoming.

They’ll tell you it’s all just a coincidence.

It’s not.

Here is a list of some of my favorite technical breakouts across real assets and emerging markets right now.

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Lower rates and a weaker dollar are no longer optional policies.

They are becoming absolutely essential for the system to function under current debt levels.

Markets tied to those two macro forces are already starting to reprice aggressively ahead of that shift.

Just look at the strength in hard assets and emerging markets over the last 12 to 24 months.

In my view, that may only be an early glimpse of what is still ahead.

Let me walk through this macro thesis using a few critical charts that help build the case further.

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This increasingly looks like the beginning of a true price-discovery phase for the metal.

It reminds me of gold once it finally cleared the $2,000/oz level and the market began adjusting to a completely different pricing regime.

Copper remains one of the most compelling supply-demand disconnects anywhere in markets today.

The metal sits at the center of nearly every major industrial expansion underway globally, including power infrastructure, manufacturing growth, grid upgrades, and broader reindustrialization efforts.

The world needs substantially more copper to support these ambitions.

The issue is that mine supply is not growing fast enough to meet that reality.

Let me walk you through a few of the copper valuation frameworks and macro charts I find most compelling today, along with some specific investment ideas tied to the theme. I think you’ll find the setup very interesting.

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Amazes me how the miners-to-gold ratio still sits at historically undervalued levels.

This move is likely to accelerate to the upside.

Operating leverage in mining companies during a secular cycle is one of the most powerful dynamics in the market.

Investors still seem to believe current mining profits are temporary.

I could not disagree more.

In this report, I want to share some of my ideas within the mining industry along with my recent thoughts on portfolio positioning. Hope you enjoy.

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The surge in gasoline prices is likely leading commodity grains.

The next wave of food inflation is already here.

With the energy thesis back in motion, agricultural commodities are starting to look like the next leg.

Corn, wheat, cotton, sugar, and rice have all begun to turn higher.

In this report, I’ll discuss this relationship, break down the latest ISM data, and highlight one of my recent investments.

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Historically, those dislocations don’t persist when demand is accelerating.

And right now, the demand side story for natural gas is quietly becoming one of the strongest in decades.

In this report, I’ll expand on the macro thesis for natural gas and then walk through three different ways to express this view in the market.

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